Housing Trajectory - Managed Delivery Target - Public forum - Planning Advisory Service (PAS)
Housing Trajectory - Managed Delivery Target
Hi,
Just have a query about how the managed delivery target (aka Core Indicator H2(d)) in the housing trajectory should be calculated. Would be grateful if anyone could shed any light as can't find any guidance online and it can be quite difficult to work it out from published examples in AMRs.
The target is calculated by subtracting the cumulative number of completions from the overall target and dividing this by the number of years remaining. However, do you include the completions that are expected to occur in the year in which you are calculating? See indicative examples below using a very short trajectory of 5 years (but principle is the same).
Just wondered which method was correct or perhaps they are both wrong?
Any thoughts greatly appreciated,
Thanks,
John
Method 1:
Year 1 = 500x5=2500 - 0 (cumulative completions) divided by 20 years remaining = 125
Year 2 = (2500 - 75) / 19 = 128
Year 3 = (2500 - 200) / 18 = 128
Year 4 = (2500 - 550) / 17 = 115
Year 5 = (2500 - 1075) / 16 = 89
Method 2:
Year 1 = 500x5=2500 - 75 (cumulative completions) divided by 20 years remaining = 121
Year 2 = (2500 - 200) / 19 = 121
Year 3 = (2500 - 550) / 18 = 108
Year 4 = (2500 - 1075) / 17 = 84
Year 5 = (2500 - 1725) / 16 = 48
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Target | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Completions | 75 | 125 | 350 | 525 | 650 |
| Cumulative Completions | 75 | 200 | 550 | 1075 | 1725 |
| Managed Delivery Target - Method 1 | 125 | 128 | 128 | 115 | 89 |
| Managed Delivery Target - Method 2 | 121 | 121 | 108 | 84 | 48 |
Ian McDonald, modified 8 Years ago.
RE: Housing Trajectory - Managed Delivery Target
Enthusiast Posts: 70 Join Date: 15/05/12 Recent PostsYou need to know how many are built or expected to be built in that year in order to compare that figure against what should have been built in that year.
The way how I see this, the managed delivery target should be based on the previous year's performance. We use the following calculations: (overall target) minus (cumulative completions for the current year) divded by (the remaining years not including the current year) = managed delivery target for the year after the current year.
For year 1 the managed delivery target should include the original target as that is the target for the first year. Year 2 should show the revised figure based on how Year 1 performed. Year 3 based on Year 2 and so on.
Hi Ian,
Thanks for your reply. If I'm reading what you've said correctly, you agree with method 1 i.e. (overall housing target minus cumulative completions in previous year) divided by number of years remaining?
Thanks,
John
Ian McDonald, modified 8 Years ago.
RE: Housing Trajectory - Managed Delivery Target
Enthusiast Posts: 70 Join Date: 15/05/12 Recent PostsI don't think you can have zero for cumulative completions - so use a projected figure if you haven't got actual completions figure.
Do look at our housing trajectory on page 20 in our Five Year Housing Land Supply Assessment (http://www.gedling.gov.uk/media/documents/planningbuildingcontrol/5YL2014.pdf) - hopefully this will help you to see how we have done the calculations.