Re: Planning and the graph of doom - Public forum - Planning Advisory Service (PAS)
Ouvert
|
En cours - juillet 2012
|
Dernière modification - May
Re: Planning and the graph of doom
Some of you may have heard the LGA chair on Radio 4 this morning. The LGA have taken the Barnet 'graph of doom' thinking and applied it to all sorts of councils. In so doing, it's lost it's catchy title (to become the "preliminary modelling of the funding outlook to 2020") but is perhaps more robust. http://www.local.gov.uk/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=c98405b7-b4a6-4b25-aebf-a63b5bcfa5c1&groupId=10171 If taken at face value, it seems to suggest that planning should prepare to be done for zero cost. Given that this includes policy, enforcement etc this is quite a stretch. Anyone dared to start thinking about what would happen if the only money in the department came from applicants ?
Localism can never be real until and unless central government gives up its 100% control over all tax sources in the UK. Any number of ‘localist’ policies is unlikely to generate a new or ‘big’ society in a country with such a unique level of centralization. The temporary need to reduce grants and expenditure will not disguise the underlying intellectual inconsistency in a pro-local stance that cannot deliver local tax-raising for the majority of non-central spending. Britain is, and under current policies, will remain one of the most centralized developed democracies in the world. Taken from page 21 of: http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.cipfa.org.uk/pmpa/publications/download/Redefining_local_government_April2011.pdf&sa=U&ei=TYDtT6F9k5nyA-uhwaoN&ved=0CCAQFjAF&usg=AFQjCNF9IS-QRQ9U-iuU3RDAUrKzWql9Zw Allow planning departments to make profits or the prophets of doom may be vindicated!
The Barnet Graph Of Doom is based on the progressively more severe financial impact of demographic changes. I suspect that we cannot look at council funding in isolation - these demographic changes are going to have major adverse effects on multiple sectors of British society. For example, the pension system is likely to stumble - or even fail - and the NHS will certainly suffer very badly. (My daughter is a nurse and it is clear from her tales that the NHS is on the edge of total overload today - let alone when many more old people will be in the system) We also need to take into account an impending global energy crisis and our related balance of payments crisis due to increasing energy imports now that North Sea gas & oil have just about faded away. (I'm ignoring a pending collapse of the Euro and the subsequent 10 years of economic disaster) To be frank, the funding of planning departments - and the future of planning consultants - may become a minor sideshow in what be be coming over the horizon. Have a nice weekend everyone!
More seriously: is there any chance of the Barnet Graph Of Doom actually being real? In ten years time should we expect to see tumbleweed blowing amongst the rubble that used to be council offices? Can't see it myself ... but the exponential curve can catch you out quite quickly ...