The future seems to be arriving earlier - Blair McPherson

How many years do you think it is from the Wright brothers first flight to NASA landing a man on the moon?

 

66 years have passed between the Wright brothers' first successful powered flight on December 17, 1903, and the Apollo 11 moon landing on July 20, 1969. This rapid technological progression saw humanity advance from a 12-second flight of 120 feet to landing astronauts on the lunar surface.

 

This tells us two things, the pace of technological progress can be extremely fast if the motivation is strong and funding readily accessible. And that it is very risky to predict the pace of social change as a result of technological advances, they said after the moon landing we would by now have a colony on Mars! 

 

So when it comes to AI we should be very concerned about just how quickly it could change our world but not be surprised if over the next 50 years not much changes.  Computers have come a long way in a short space of time but that does not mean developments will progress at the same pass. 

 

Technology does not led people do. It was the USA and Soviet governments space race to determine which was the superior society that resulted in limitless resources being committed to getting the first man on the moon. Once achieved neither country wanted to continue putting it best brains and ruinous budget into maintaining a space race, hence slow progress over the last 50 years. 

 

For example climate disaster could force governments to radically change economic policies in favour of reducing their gross national product, move away from energy sapping tech and see a backlash against commercialism. Rather than assume that we will continue to invest in technology and economic growth , which will probably led to more global conflicts and even  greater social divides, we could put the best brains and biggest budget into saving the planet -reversing the effects of global warming. 

 

We can’t afford to be complacent about the risks of too rapid technological advancement  but nor should we be too influenced by the science fiction industry that has an AI take over and humanity living on other worlds. 

 

blairmcpherson.co.uk