'Interim' 5YS position...? - Public forum - Planning Advisory Service (PAS)

Hi Benjamin

I have updated our 5YS the way you suggested in your first option. Our annual SM need changed from 1244 to 906, So I recalculated the 5YS based on the new SM. I have not chnaged the supply side at all. It remains as it was on 1 April 2024. The new SM wil change again in March and May I believe when the baseline stock is published and when the afforsability data is updated. Technically this means that the 5YS could chnage again. 

It will change based on supply when we update the completions/permissions side at 1 April 2025 but alos when the ned side changes. 

Right or wrong this is what I have done.

Cheers

Jon

Hi both, MHCLG confirmed at last week's PAS NPPF housing session that the new NPPF and LHN kicked in immediately for the purposes of calculating 5yr supply when released in mid-December, so you need to recalculate your 5yr supply on that basis.  If you've got an adopted plan that's less than 5yrs old tho, the 5yr supply would be measured against the Plan-based figure, otherwise your previously established supply would be recalculated against the new LHN.

As Jon says, the LHN will then be updated circa late March when ONS publish the updated affordability ratio data, and then again circa May when MHCLG publish the updated dwelling stock data.  One thing I asked in the Slido Q&A, but which wasn't answered during the session, was (if not measured against your adopted Plan) which of those two LHN's applies when calculating your 5yr supply position as at the end of the financial year but where you don't actually complete the analysis and publish your updated position usually until sometime in the summer or early autumn!  Is it the March update that's relevant as at the end of the financial year, or does the May update apply given publishing later, or does your 5yr supply position need to be recalculated each time the LHN changes?  Similar applies in terms of which LHN figure applies to the HDT calculation if it's changing at least twice a year now (or is there gonna be some kind of calculation based on one figure being relevant for the first part of the year and the other figure relevant for the rest of the year)?  Hopefully some clarity will be given in an updated PPG soon!

Andrea

Hi,  I had an appeal decision last year where the inspector agreed the approach of running the SM calculation again after a published position under the December 2023 NPPF where the 5% buffer had been removed for authorities who performed well against the HDT.  He agreed there was not the need to update the supply side,  a position also agreed by the appeallants consultants.  So this approach could be applied the the December NPPF 2024 changes. However the inspector did not agree with using the March 2024 affordability ratios with the April 2023 stock of sites.  The inspector was of the opinion that the ONS data release was for the purpose of comprehensively calculating the next years monitoring position and not for for providing an interim update on the pervious.

Now we have the two data sets of affordability ratios and housing stock updated unanually but admitedly two months apart,  I would say based on experience from that appeal inspector you have to do a comprehensive position with both data sets after May,  so you could not have an interim in March,  and May.  

From experience with site surveys, analaysis of those results any site promoter engagement and reporting to members I have always found it hard to have a comprehensive supply position by May so normally I would not have a 5 year supply position until June at the earliest so the timing of the tw ONS data sets should not be an issue.