Paragraph 47 of the NPPF requires LPAs to prepare a housing trajectory illustrating the expected rate of housing delivery for the full plan period. I have seen a number of such trajectories in Core Strategies but am struggling with the mechanics of how to prepare one for the East Riding. Our next stage is a Publication Core Strategy and we are preparing a Preferred Sites Allocations document shortly after that. Therefore, as will be the experience of many authorities, the Core Stratey will include a trajectory in advance of any decisions on which sites will come forward. How then, will I be able to set out the expected rate of delivery over the plan period when I do not know which sites will come forward? Other authorities have used their SHLAA and this has been appropriate in many cases. However, the East Riding's SHLAA includes a significant amount of developable land capable of meeting our requirments twice over. We could just assume that from a certain point we will hit our requirement until the end of the plan period because of the theoretical capacity calculated by the SHLAA. To me, this seems to render the trajectory pointless. In addition, how are authorities dealing with the economic downturn in respect of their trajectoies? What evidence is being used to justify when the market can return to deliver their housing requirements? Any thoughts on these aspects are welcome. Thanks
