Is anyone having difficulties advising on development needs in small communities? The normal models for assessing dwelling needs (and other development needs) don't really work at this scale. For many rural settlements, there is no specific development target in the Local Plan, merely an expectation that a certain number of dwellings will be delivered in the rural part of the District. So the Local Plan isn't necessarily much help.
If communities set their own, there is a risk that they will under-deliver. This could lead to a process of beggar-my-neighbour whereby communities with restrictive neighbourhood plans effectively 'dump' development on communities without. With no acknowledged methodology for assessing small area needs there is no means of correcting this.
One option is to run the conventional population and household forecasts at micro level. In small areas however this can produce misleading results due to sample size and the reliability of assumptions about migration.
Another option is the use of local housing needs surveys. These however will only produce a snapshot, cannot predict future growth and do not capture people with needs who have already left, or people from outside looking to come in. In small areas, confidentiality may also be an issue - particularly where information on affordability - which includes incomes - is required.
The simplest approach is to align the Neighbourhood Plan with the Local Plan and divide local plan targets pro rata, by households or by dwelling numbers. This however risks the criticism that it is top down and does not reflect local circumstance;
It is something that in a different era one might have expected some Government guidance about but I'm not holding my breath...
