What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

Planning Advisory Service (PAS)

Open group | Started - July 2012 | Last activity - Today

Former Member, modified 9 Years ago.

What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

The NPPF is clear that authorities should demonstrate a 5 year housing supply. However, it is somewhat less clear about the housing requirement that supply should be assessed against. Usually it will be the adopted Local Plan target. But what if there is no particularly relevant local plan housing target (e.g. because it is too old or perhaps covers a different area)? I have looked at a number of AMRs and there seems to be a variety of approaches, with some still using old RSS targets as the most recently adopted, some using draft plan targets and others assessing supply against a range of different targets or by different areas/sub areas.

One option is to use figures from a SHMA, if there is one - but of course such figures are likely to need considerable adjustment through the plan preparation process before they become a housing target. This adjustment could be up or down, to take account of factors such as constraints and the requirements of other authorities in the housing market area. Ministerial advice is fairly clear (letter from Brandon Lewis Dec 2014) that the outcome of a SHMA is untested and should not automatically be seen as a proxy for a housing target in a Local Plan. At what point might it be appropriate to switch to an untested emerging target, for the purposes of assessing your supply, and what alternative figures might it be appropriate to use in the meantime?

Grateful for any views on this/ any relevant cases/decisions where this may have been considered.

Former Member, modified 9 Years ago.

RE: What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

Hi,

I don't think there is a definitive answer to this yet, but there are some fairly clear examples from recent appeals that can help us understand the principles. I apologise in advance for the length of my answer!

Have you done an up to date SHMA, which has helped you produce an OAN figure? Whilst this won't have been examined, if it is clear that this figure is robust and has been based on up to date evidence and data, it is likely to have some material weight at an appeal. Clearly, the further the evidence has got through the plan preparation process, the more weight it is likely to be given. This will be true whether you have yet to adopt a core strategy, or if that core strategy is clearly now out of date (e.g. based on RS evidence or otherwise superseded by more recent projections).

If you have not done this work, it is likely that you will face opposition at appeal from someone who has done some work. Now, that is not, in itself, a guarantee that their work is taken as 'the figure'. We can see from the S78 appeal at Blaby, the Inspector was not convinced by either the authorities' evidence or the appellants, and so 'ignored' them both. More recently, in Darlington, the Inspector was faced with some fairly robust evidence from the appellant, but less so from the authority. The Inspector made a few very interesting and important points:

1) It is not the purpose of a S78 appeal to determine what the OAN is - that can only be done in a development plan examination. This means that even if the authority loses the appeal, they will not come out of it with a clear OAN figure. All that will be known is that 'on balance' the figure they are likely to have to provide for means that at the time of the appeal they cannot demonstrate a 5 year land supply.

2) If you don't have up to date evidence, but someone else does, and they can demonstrate they have produced this in line with the NPPF and PG, then the Inspector is likely to give that evidence some weight. How much weight will depend on factors such as the strength of the counter-argument/evidence from the council. The council may not have produced an up to date assessment, but they are still in a position to question the assumptions made by the appellant. If this questioning is convincing, then the Inspector is likely to have enough doubt in their mind to reduce the weight given to the appellant's figures.

3) It is not the purpose of a S78 appeal to have a forensic look at all your supply sites. Your supply figures and assumptions should be very robust. If you haven't had recent conversations with developers and land owners about sites you are expecting to contribute to your 5 year land supply, you will start to lose the confidence of the Inspector. Basic questions to ask are: Do the sites have permission? If not, how close are they to getting it (initial inquiry, pre-app, outline, S106 sign-off)? Have you discussed the likely build-out rates with the developer/owner? How recently? Any issues with other agencies, such as required mitigation/infrastructure which may slow delivery? This is not exhaustive, but you need to know at least those things if you are relying on a site as part of your 5 year land supply.

To summarise then, and do please get back to me and challenge from your own experiences:

1) Get an up to date SHMA as soon as possible. The sooner you have this the sooner you can give confidence to an Inspector that you have robust and up to date evidence on which to move forward. As you progress an emerging plan with a figure based on your up to date evidence it is ok to use this figure as your assumed 5 year land supply. Until it has been tested at the development plan examination, it is going to be challenged, but as long as it is based on all the right things, you will be in a much stronger position than without it.

2) Look at the PAS advice note on OAN and make sure you are happy your assumptions are robust (e.g. on employment, and migration etc)

3) Demonstrate an understanding of the market through recent conversations with developers/land owners about their sites, build rates, etc. Ensure that any sites you are relying on for the 5 year supply can actually be delivered, thinking about any mitigation or infrastructure requirements, as well as where they are in the application process - permission, outline, pre-app, initial inquiry etc

I hope this helps but do please get back to me with any thoughts or other experiences

Adam

Andrea King, modified 9 Years ago.

RE: What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

Enthusiast Posts: 76 Join Date: 19/08/13 Recent Posts

One other point I'd raise Adam is that you'll obv need to be careful where your SHMA, and any other national and locally-based alternative OAN figures you've compiled, suggest your potential Local Plan needs will only be achievable through development on land covered by the potential exceptions to fully providing for your OAN in NPPF para.14 and its footnote! Clearly if any of those exceptions apply to your area to a significant extent, then it may be unreasonable for you to be penalised for not having a 5yr housing land supply based on what may well be an undeliverable OAN! Similarly if evidence of deliverable housebuilding rates suggest the OAN is likely to be unachievable even with some increase in build-out rates. You may also be getting another LA to help provide for some of those identified needs too. Hence the need to get a preferred deliverable growth scenario for your borough in place at least in an emerging draft plan, so you've then got something more realistic to work to. After all, while seeking to be aspirational in providing for your full OAN, the NPPF also says your plan must be realistic and deliverable - your OAN(s) is just the starting point to determining what your housing requirements in your Local Plan will be.

Former Member, modified 9 Years ago.

RE: What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

The PAS document "Ten Key Principles for Owning your Housing Number..." is really useful and if you dont have an up-to-date Plan or SHMA, the recent CLG household projections (2012) should be the "starting point" when calculating your Objectively Assessed Need figure. Good luck!

Vicky Owen, modified 8 Years ago.

RE: What should you assess your 5 year supply against without adopted plan?

New Member Post: 1 Join Date: 23/06/15 Recent Posts

It is interesting to also consider how this should apply where an authority has an up to date SHMA and from that an OAN, but where it is clear that to get the Local Plan through examination the housing target would need to be significantly higher than the OAN ( e.g. to address needs which cannot be met elsewhere in the HMA). Should the acknowledged need for a higher figure be a factor in assessing the 5 year supply at any point before the Local Plan is adopted? Technically this is difficult, because the scale and distribution of the need would, quite properly, have to be agreed through the examination process, but it seems illogical for it not to be taken account of in some way.