Everyone has been focussed on how the new ONS projections will work with the new standard method. They do also feed into the HDT calculations because they are used in transition (ie the figures themselves are used rather than post method as LHN).
My friends in the LGA research team are building some tools* for LPAs to model both their HDT and their position on a forward-looking 5 year land supply.
They have shared with me an early cut that shows the "before" and "after" following the new projections. For many councils this is good news in that they improve a grade boundary [sorry my children had exams recently]. A smaller number of councils drop. However it could be argued that this new volatility in the numbers should mean that even those councils scraping a pass should put themselves through the rigour of an action plan.
It's very hot off the press and I haven't really got my own head round it yet, but here goes. Any questions, feel free.
* these tools will be launched in a couple of weeks at the events, tested, and then shared with everyone if you were wondering
