I was asked this question the other day: "The housing figures produced Government’s new proposed standard OAN methodology cover the period 2016 to 2026. The emerging Local Plan will cover the period 2018 to 2033. Should the annual target for the period 2016 to 2026 simply be rolled forward to cover the period 2026 to 2033? If not then on what basis should the target be determined?"
I thought I would try answering it in public to see if anyone has got any different points of view.
I'll take it in stages, and I will use the new language of local housing need ('LHN') rather than the old OAN:
"The housing figures produced Government’s new proposed standard OAN methodology cover the period 2016 to 2026." - yes, sort of. I think the method says to take the 2017 figure from the 2027 figure and divide by 10 to give the average annual growth in households. I don't think there is anything magical about these dates though - it is a standardised methodology that sets out to avoid lumps & bumps by taking a longer term view and a smoothing factor.
"The emerging Local Plan will cover the period 2018 to 2033. Should the annual target for the period 2016 to 2026 simply be rolled forward to cover the period 2026 to 2033? ". No, or maybe Yes - I think there is a step missing inbetween these sentences.
"If not then on what basis should the target be determined?" I think the thing to be clear about is at what point you turn the LHN into a plan target. In simplified terms you take the LHN and apply deliverability & capacity constraints (and also growth exported to / imported from neighbours). Some of those judgements will apply to these years at the back-end of the plan, and others won't.
I wonder whether the question should perhaps be "How should we calculate our total quantum using LHN for the duration of the plan ?" in which case using pro rata seems like a very good starting point. Unless you are expecting HS2 or some other known future development which will change the underlying factors.
Can anyone answer the question in a less waffly way ?
